Anthropic Files for IPO as Polymarket Traders Split on a $2 Trillion Debut

Anthropic made its IPO filing public on Oct. 26, handing prediction market traders the first official look at the Claude maker's finances after months of betting on its listing.

The S-1 filing shows $16.3 billion in revenue for the first half of 2026, up 1,300% from a year earlier. It also shows a net loss of $80.7 billion for the same six months. Polymarket's rules name SEC filings such as this one as the main source for settling its Anthropic contracts, and traders have put more than $1.4 million into the single question of whether the shares list by Dec. 31.

Traders Bet on a Late-November Listing

Anthropic has applied to list on Nasdaq under the symbol "ANT," according to the filing. It gives no date.

Polymarket prices on the morning of Oct. 26 put the chance of a listing by Nov. 15 at about 4%. That jumps to about 84% by Nov. 30 and 93.5% by Dec. 31.

A separate set of contracts asks what Anthropic will be worth at the close of its first trading day. The $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion bracket leads at 28%. All the brackets above $2 trillion add up to about 44%, so traders see a $2 trillion debut as slightly less likely than not.

The $3 trillion-plus bracket trades near 2 cents, the kind of long shot that loses far more often than its price suggests on both major prediction markets.

The Filing Warns Growth Will Slow

Revenue climbed from $4.6 billion for all of 2025, the filing shows, while the loss for that year was $42.0 billion. Anthropic tells investors it does not expect revenue to keep growing at comparable rates and "cannot assure you that it will continue to grow at all."

The next document traders need is the final prospectus. Polymarket's market on Anthropic's IPO valuation settles on the offering price stated there, not on where the shares open or trade.

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