Kalshi Asks CFTC for Permission to Relist AI Compute Markets

The prediction market says chip rental prices should be set on U.S. exchanges, weeks after a report that Commerce officials had it pull its GPU price curve.

Francis Gable

22/10/26 · 2 minOctober 22, 2026 · 2 min read

Kalshi has asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to let it bring back markets on the cost of renting the chips that run artificial intelligence.

The request puts Kalshi between two parts of the federal government. The CFTC's chair has said America "cannot win the AI race without a robust derivatives market for compute," according to the agency's Aug. 19 announcement.

Commerce Department officials told Kalshi to pull its compute price curve on national security grounds, Semafor reported. Commerce denies it.

Kalshi Argues Computing Power Is a Commodity

Sudhir Jain, who runs compliance at Kalshi, said in a LinkedIn post that the company had filed comments with the CFTC, according to Axios. He argued that computing power meets the legal definition of a commodity.

Jain said both sides of the market have reasons to hedge. AI labs could lock in their chip costs, and data center operators could protect the returns on their graphics processors. GPU prices, he argued, should be set on U.S. markets, not overseas.

The filing answers a CFTC request for comment on compute derivatives. The agency asked about manipulation risk, customer protection and perpetual futures, which are contracts with no expiry date. The window closed on Oct. 20.

Commerce Denies Ordering a Takedown

Kalshi published forward curves for Nvidia's B200, H200 and A100 chips in July. Semafor reported on Sept. 15 that Kalshi quietly took the curve down, though many underlying markets stayed open.

Semafor also reported that Commerce pushed the CFTC to freeze approval of new compute contracts for 60 days, citing people familiar with the matter. A Commerce spokesperson told Semafor the department "has never once asked Kalshi to take down this market or any other markets."

CME Group missed a planned Oct. 5 launch of GPU rental futures, and the CFTC's review of those contracts runs to Nov. 9, Finance Magnates reported. CFTC staff also stayed a Kalshi amendment to its commodity-price contract, citing the same consultation. That stay runs until Nov. 19, the next test of whether Kalshi's compute markets return.

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