Bernstein Forecasts $10 Trillion a Year in Prediction Market Volume by 2035

Bernstein forecast on Sept. 22 that prediction markets will trade $10 trillion a year by 2035, about 24 times what the research firm expects them to handle in 2026.

Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani put 2026 volume near $410 billion, up from $50 billion in 2025. That is roughly 70% growth a year for a decade, and Bernstein expects most of the new money to ride on prices rather than on games.

Price Contracts Overtake Sports Betting

Sports accounted for 61% of volume in 2025. Bernstein expects that share to fall to 38% by 2035, even as the dollar figure keeps climbing.

Contracts on crypto, stocks and commodities move the other way, from 12% of volume to 49%. The model assumes prediction markets capture 0.5% of a financial pool Bernstein sizes at about $700 trillion in 2025 and $900 trillion in 2035.

Short-dated products are driving the change now. The note cites 15-minute bitcoin markets and commodity trading that grew from under $2 million in 2025 to about $590 million so far in 2026.

Kalshi's share of industry volume has reached 60%, up from 35% in 2025, on figures that count both sides of every trade.

Regulators Have Not Settled Who Is in Charge

Bernstein does not expect the United States to resolve the legal status of sports contracts before 2027 or 2028. State gambling laws and federal commodities law point in opposite directions, and the appeals courts have split.

New Jersey asked the Supreme Court on Sept. 2 to settle the question.

Companies like Kalshi claim to offer legal sports betting in all 50 States, but they refuse to follow the gambling laws of any State.

Attorney General Jennifer Davenport said that in announcing the petition, which asks the justices to overturn an April ruling that federal law preempts her state's gambling rules. FairGambling covered the appeals court decision that went the other way in August.

The justices have not said whether they will take the case.

Treat gambling as entertainment you pay for. 18+, and if it stops feeling like entertainment, help exists at BeGambleAware and GamCare.