Polymarket Seeks $20 Billion Valuation as Monthly Volume Falls 26%

Polymarket is asking investors to value it at more than $20 billion, more than double the $9 billion it carried in October 2025. Bloomberg first reported on Aug. 4 that the prediction market is in early talks to raise about $1 billion.

The exchange that built the brand is shrinking. Polymarket lets users trade contracts that pay out on real-world outcomes, settled in cryptocurrency. Its international exchange handled $7.9 billion in July, down 26% from June, according to The Block.

Two Polymarket Exchanges Move in Opposite Directions

Polymarket spent years barred from serving Americans, until it bought QCX, a federally licensed exchange, in 2025 and launched a regulated U.S. platform. That newer venue went the other way, taking $5 billion in July, up 54% from June.

Combined volume across both Polymarket platforms and rival Kalshi hit a record $50.6 billion, up 7.8% from June. Most of that growth was Kalshi's, whose reported volume drew scrutiny from a DraftKings cofounder in July.

Bloomberg also put Polymarket's annualized revenue above $1.2 billion, roughly triple its level in April. April is also when it quietly closed a round of about $1 billion at a $15 billion valuation, adding D.E. Shaw and G Squared. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which owns the New York Stock Exchange, said on March 27 it had completed a $600 million direct investment in that raise.

Small Traders Sit Behind the Big Number

The accounts behind that volume trade small. The Pew Research Center sampled 11,989 active Polymarket accounts between May 7 and June 19. The typical account placed 46 trades across 10 active days, at an average of $6.50 a trade. Median net loss was under $2, and 58% of traders finished within $100 either way.

Kalshi is asking for more. The federally regulated exchange is in talks at about $40 billion, after a May round valued it at $22 billion.

Polymarket also carries a regulatory question its rival does not. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal derivatives regulator, is investigating the platform's social media marketing. That probe was already open when OpenAI began piping Kalshi's odds into ChatGPT in July. ICE has said it will disclose the valuation attached to its March investment only once the fundraising closes.