Pascal Raises $9M to Take On Kalshi and Polymarket

New York-based prediction market startup Pascal announced a $9 million Series A on Thursday, July 16, led by Union Square Ventures. The New York company is building event contracts for professional traders and institutions rather than casual bettors, and it is going straight at market leaders Kalshi and Polymarket. Pascal launched in June and is still in private beta, describing itself on its website as a noncustodial prediction market exchange on Solana.

The round extends a $6 million seed held in August 2025 with Wintermute Ventures and DBA. Co-founders Ivo Crnkovic-Rubsamen, a former Bridgewater quant who ran crypto derivatives exchange dYdX, and Matthew Downey, a high-frequency crypto trader, declined to disclose the valuation or current trading volumes. Pascal sits closer to perpetual futures than to standard event contracts, promising lower fees, faster execution, and fewer "phantom fills" where a trade looks filled but never settles.

Phantom Fills Are Pascal's Whole Pitch

That fill problem is the tell. A trader who sees a price, hits it, and gets nothing has been shown a market that does not exist, and Pascal is selling the fix as its product.

The incumbents are enormous by comparison. Polymarket carries a latest valuation of up to $15 billion according to Bloomberg, and Kalshi $22 billion, with Kalshi reportedly in talks on a raise that could roughly double that. Both grew off election and sports contracts, and World Cup event markets alone moved billions in volume this summer.

What This Means for Players

Retail is not Pascal's target, but sharper institutional pricing usually tightens spreads across every venue quoting the same event.

Two things to watch: Pascal's exit from private beta, and the state lawsuits testing whether event contracts answer to the CFTC or to state gambling law.