Stake Opens Betting on GTA VI Before Launch

On November 12th, Stake launched GTA VI betting markets. Players can bet on whether Jason or Lucia, the game’s two main characters, dies at the end (1.53), on an alternative ending (1.15), or on a GTA V protagonist showing up in story mode (5.00), according to odds listed by RG.org.

Players can also bet on whether GTA VI beats the 97/100 Metacritic score that both GTA V and Red Dead Redemption 2 received. Odds sit at 2.40 for “yes”, which needs a score of 98 or higher, as of November 14th.

Stake is also taking bets on a race between six popular streamers to see who can finish the storyline first. xQc is currently the favorite at 1.60, followed by dcampion at 3.00. Each streamer’s run will be streamed live on Kick, the platform launched by Stake’s co-founders. Leading up to the race, Kick is giving away 10,000 copies of GTA VI to viewers who watch its streams. The giveaway post has already drawn almost 4 million views on X.

Prediction Markets

Stake is late to GTA VI betting. For months, Kalshi and Polymarket users have been betting on when the game will finally come out, and whether it gets delayed again. Kalshi’s release date market alone has traded about 7 million contracts as of November 14th.

Kalshi also has its own market on GTA VI’s Metacritic score, similar to Stake’s. Its market rules explicitly ban Metacritic reviewers and anyone holding material, non-public information from trading on it. Stake has not publicly stated whether reviewers, or the six streamers in its race, are allowed to bet on its markets.

GTA VI reviewers reportedly began receiving copies of the game in late October, according to leaker NateTheHate and Insider Gaming. Reviews are expected to go live on November 18th.

Stake’s story and Metacritic markets stay open until the game first unlocks on launch day, November 19th, according to RG.org.

Treat gambling as entertainment you pay for. 18+, and if it stops feeling like entertainment, help exists at BeGambleAware and GamCare.