Rampant Wildfire Betting Stokes Arson Fears

Traders spent roughly $1.2 million betting on the paths of the Eaton and Palisades wildfires, which killed at least 28 people and destroyed more than 16,000 structures, and a new platform called Wyldfyre now wants a market dedicated only to fires.

Kylie Mohr on Tuesday elaborated on her High Country News story in a radio interview with Wyoming Public Media and KJZZ on Tuesday, and revealed how Polymarket and Kalshi turned live disasters into tradable event contracts.

On Polymarket, an in-house team writes questions and users trade yes or no shares on outcomes like acreage burned by a set date. During the January 2025 Los Angeles fires, Polymarket ran roughly 20 markets on the Palisades and Eaton fires, and users wagered more than $1.2 million on their spread, duration and containment.

In July 2026, a standalone site, Wyldfyre, launched as the self-described first California wildfire prediction market, claiming crowd wagers can improve fire forecasting.

Source: Wyldfyre

Can You Really Bet on a Burning Town?

Yes. A snapshot of the live and resolved markets shows how much money moves on active disasters:

• Total wagered on the January 2025 LA fires: $1.2 million across about 20 Polymarket markets
• "How many acres will the Palisades fire burn by Friday?" market volume: $347,366
• Live Polymarket wildfire markets in early July 2026: roughly 100
• Wyldfyre runs on play money for now, with real-money betting listed as "coming soon"; its owner is undisclosed and the site lists no contact details
• Cal Fire and the US Forest Service both refuse to use prediction-market data, calling it incompatible with their mission

Weather betting dates to the 1800s, but wildfires differ because people can start them. A March bill from Reps. Blake Moore and Salud Carbajal would ban event contracts tied to "terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or illegal activity," yet wildfire is not on that list, leaving these markets unregulated as fire season peaks.